Container Shipping is cold?

The decline of the container shipping market was unstoppable. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) fell for 11 consecutive weeks, and the decline expanded to 8%, the largest weekly decline since the epidemic.

According to the latest data released by Shanghai Stock Exchange on August 26, the SCFI index continued to drop by 275.57 points to 3154.26 points last week, falling to a new low since early May last year. As high as 11%, the near-ocean line also fell by as much as 21%.

Among the three major routes, the freight rate per FEU on the US West Line dropped by USD 191 to USD 8,801 per week, or 2.12%. Although it hit a new low in mid-June last year, the decline was lower than that of other long-haul routes. The freight rate per FEU on the US West Line fell by US$648 to US$5,134 per week, to a new low since mid-July last year. The decline expanded from 6% in the previous week to 11.2% in one go, showing a double-digit weekly decline for the first time.

At the same time, the European line was also difficult to stop falling, and the weekly freight rate per TEU fell by US$347 to US$4,441, a drop of 7.25%, hitting a new low in late April last year.

Industry insiders pointed out that judging from the current freight rates, the container shipping market has determined that the peak season in the third quarter will not be prosperous. Due to inflation in the European and American markets, sluggish demand, and a backlog of inventory, with the reduction of supply, the pressure of container shipping companies to fill the tank has led to bargaining and rushing for goods.

With the failure of the traditional peak season market in the third quarter, the market began to decline the speed and bottom the freight rate. The container shipping company continued to adjust the supply of space to support the freight rate. Currently, the European and American lines still enjoy excess profits; but if the decline continues to expand, every important checkpoint will be dropped. It may affect the market ecology; and in the context of the rapid fall in freight rates, it is not ruled out that the cargo owner may renegotiate the long-term price with the container shipping company.

According to statistics, the SCFI index has fallen by more than 38% since its historical high. Among them, the freight rate of the European line has dropped by up to 43%, the west line of the United States has dropped by more than 36%, and the east line of the United States has dropped by 26%. Severely related. In addition, the freight rates of the near-ocean routes in Southeast Asia have fallen sharply recently, mainly because the Vietnam and Thailand routes with large cargo volumes have attracted many container shipping companies to rush for goods.

The industry has previously estimated that as long as the freight rate does not fall by more than 50% from the high level, the container shipping company can still maintain considerable profits, but if the current SCFI index trend is followed, the profitability of the container shipping company may face a test.

Last week, the spot freight rate per FEU on the US West Line has fallen below the US$5,000 mark. Many small boats chartered at high prices have greatly reduced their profits. Large ships also have pressure to fill their tanks and need to cut prices to grab goods. If the price falls below $3,500-4,000, small boats that do not have a cost advantage may exit the market first.

Analysts pointed out that the first factor that can prevent the decline of freight rates is port congestion, which reduces the turnover rate of ships and naturally reduces the supply of space. There are land strikes and port strikes in Europe and the United States, including the Port of Fristol in the United Kingdom and the Port of Hamburg in Germany, etc. In September, it was reported that nearly half of the flights on the European line were to be canceled, and the industry observed that the decline in freight rates on the European line seemed to show signs of slowing down.

The future trend of freight rates depends on inventory digestion and the speed of inflation mitigation. The industry predicts that after two seasons of inventory digestion in Europe and the United States, it is expected that seasonal demand and general commodity replenishment will be seen in the fourth quarter, and it is expected that the off-season will continue to support freight rates.

Source: eworldship

集运市场凉了？连续11周下跌创疫情以来最大跌幅

集运市场跌势难挡，上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）连续11周下跌，跌幅更扩大至8%，创疫情以来单周最大跌幅。

根据上海航交所8月26日公布的最新数据，上周SCFI指数续跌275.57点至3154.26 点，跌至去年5月上旬以来新低，欧美主要航线运价全面下跌，其中美西线单周跌幅高达11%，近洋线跌幅也高达21%。

三大航线中，美西线每FEU运价周跌191美元至8801美元，跌幅 2.12%，虽然创下去年6月中旬以来新低，但跌幅相对其他长程航线较低。美西线每FEU运价周跌648美元至5134美元，降至去年 7 月中旬以来新低，跌幅自之前一周的 6% 一口气再扩大至 11.2%，首次出现单周两位数跌幅。

与此同时，欧洲线也难以止跌，每TEU运价周跌347 美元至4441美元，跌幅7.25%，创去年4月下旬以来新低。

业界人士指出，从目前运价来看，集运市场已确定第三季度旺季不旺。由于欧美市场通货膨胀，需求不振、库存积压，随着货源减少，集运公司填舱压力引发杀价抢货现象，运价下跌已成趋势，欧美主要港口罢工、拥堵程度，将决定运价的跌势。

随着第三季度传统旺季行情失灵，市场开始运价下滑速度与底部，集运公司持续调控舱位供给支撑运价，目前欧美线仍享有超额利润；但如果跌幅持续扩大，每下探一个重要关卡都可能牵动市场生态；而且在运价快速回落的背景下，不排除货主有与集运公司重新协商长约价格的可能。

据统计，SCFI指数从历史高位下跌至今跌幅已经超过38%，其中欧洲线运价跌幅最多达43%，美西线跌幅超36%，美东线跌幅26%，这与近期美东线塞港严峻有关。另外，东南亚近洋线运价近期跌幅较大，主要由于货量多的越南、泰国航线吸引众多集运公司抢货。

此前业界曾估计，只要运价从高位下跌不超过50%，集运公司仍能维持可观利润，但如果按照目前SCFI指数走势，集运公司的盈利能力恐将面临考验。

上周，美西线每FEU现货运价已经跌破5000美元大关，许多以高价租船的小船获利被大大压缩，大船也有填舱压力需削价抢货，通常而言如果美西线运价跌破3500-4000美元，不具备成本优势的小船恐将先退出市场。

分析人士指出，目前可以阻止运价跌势的因素首先是塞港，降低船舶周转率、自然减少舱位供给，欧美都有陆路与港口罢工问题，包括英国佛利斯多港、德国汉堡港等，9月传出欧洲线有近半数航班拟取消，业界观察欧洲线运价跌势似乎有放缓的迹象。

未来运价走势取决于库存消化、通货膨胀缓解速度，业界预测，欧美经过两季消化库存，预计第四季度将可看到季节性需求、一般性商品补货，期待淡季不淡支撑运价。

来源：国际船舶网