September 28, 2022

MarineCurrents

Current Maritime News | Clean Energy

Container Shipping Market has accelerated to decline

3 min read
Container Shipping Market has accelerated to decline

Global inflation has reduced demand, the decline in freight rates has expanded, and the peak season of the container shipping market in the third quarter has been cold, but the industry is still optimistic that the market will reverse in the fourth quarter.

It is reported that the freight rate per FEU of some shipping companies in the spot market fell below the US$5,000 mark this week. Since August, the freight rate of the U.S. West line has dropped from the prefix 6 to the prefix 4, a drop of more than 20%. Industry insiders predict that the drop in freight rates means that the ships are not satisfied with the cargo, and the effect of bargaining and rushing for goods will prompt a full-scale quotation of the 4th word on the US-Western line next week.

At the same time, the freight rate per FEU on the European line fell below US$9,000 in July, and the “Battle 8” war was launched in August. Relatively speaking, many ships flocked to the east of the United States in order to avoid variables such as the Macedonian port and the labor negotiation of dock workers, supporting the freight rate of the east line. Currently, the freight rate per FEU is still around US$9,000.

Industry analysts said that high inflation in Europe and the United States has seriously suppressed consumption power, especially the Russian-Ukrainian war has pushed up energy and food inflation, European retailers and manufacturers have significantly weakened their ability to pull goods, and the consumption pattern in Europe and the United States has shifted from commodity consumption to service consumption. Consumption has led to a slowdown in the purchase of goods, and there have been concerns about order shortages from China to Vietnam and India.

According to the Global Port Tracker report compiled by the National Retail Federation, U.S. imports slowed in the second half of the year, which means that shipments in the next few months are likely to decline compared with the same period last year, and the decline will intensify next year. According to the Ho Chi Minh City Business Association of Vietnam, orders for industries such as electronics, textiles, and footwear have been greatly impacted by the slowdown in orders from Europe and the United States; India’s apparel and home textiles export orders also fell by 20%-40%, not only delaying previous orders but even reducing orders. One season order.

Compared with the peak season in the third quarter of last year, which may have only one flight every two weeks, there are flights almost every week in the third quarter of this year. This is related to the relaxation of epidemic control and the increase of terminal efficiency and the increase of available capacity when new ships are put into operation. To increase the cargo load factor, while the current profit is still high, if you do not follow up with the competition of peer price cuts, the cargo load will be lost quickly.

Some shipping companies have observed that European and American importers continue to digest inventories, and the market is expected to reverse in the fourth quarter, mainly because of the demand for seasonal commodities and the replenishment of general commodities. Currently, port congestion in Europe and the United States and worker strikes are supporting the slow decline in freight rates. Factors, the United States West Line will defend the top and bottom of 4,000 US dollars.

In addition, container shipping companies can also support high freight rates by reducing shifts and adjusting space. In the third quarter, the three major shipping alliances continued to reduce their shifts. In the fourth quarter of previous years, they usually reduced their shifts by about 15% in a single season. However, with reference to the lack of supply during the epidemic in the first quarter of 2020, the shift reduction was as high as 30%-40%.

Some experts said that although the current freight rate has fallen, compared with the ultra-low price of the past 10 years, shipping companies still have enough room for profit. Moreover, the drop in freight rates will also help to increase the willingness of some cargo owners to carry goods, especially the sources of timber and steel, which are expected to be transported from bulk carriers to container ships.

Source: eworldship

集装箱航运市场加速下跌!船多货少开始杀价抢货

全球通胀压低需求,运价跌势扩大,集运市场第三季度旺季遇冷,但业界仍旧看好四季度市场出现反转。

据悉,本周现货市场部分船公司美西线每FEU运价跌破5000美元大关,8月以来美西线运价从6字头下探4字头,跌幅超20%。业界人士预测,运价下跌代表船舶装不满,杀价抢货效应将促使下周美西线全面开价4字头。

与此同时,欧洲线每FEU运价则在7月失守9000美元,8月展开“保8”大战。相对而言,许多船舶为了避开美西塞港、码头工人劳资谈判等变数而涌入美东,支撑美东线运价,目前每FEU运价仍维持在9000美元左右。

业界分析称,欧美高通胀严重抑制了消费力,尤其是俄乌战争推升能源与粮食通胀,欧洲零售商、制造商拉货力道大幅减弱,加上欧美地区消费型态从商品消费转往服务消费,都造成拉货放缓,从中国到越南、印度都出现了订单荒的担忧。

根据全美零售联盟编制的全球港口追踪报告,美国下半年进口量趋缓,这意味着未来数月运量恐较去年同期下滑,明年跌幅加剧。越南胡志明市商业协会称,电子、纺织、鞋类等产业订单受到来自欧美订单放缓的冲击较大;印度服装与家用纺织品出口订单也下滑20%-40%,不仅推迟之前订单,甚至减少下一季订单。

与去年第三季度旺季时期可能每两周才有一个航班相比,今年第三季度几乎周周都有航班,这与疫情管控放松增加码头效率、新船投入运营可用运力增加有关,集运公司为了提高货载率,在目前仍有高获利之下,如果不跟进同行削价竞争,货载会很快流失。

有船公司观察称,欧美进口商持续消化库存,市场有望在第四季度反转,主要是看好季节性商品需求、一般性商品补货,目前欧美港口拥堵与工人罢工是支撑运价保持缓慢下降的因素,美西线将力守4000美元上下。

另外,集运公司也可以通过减班调控舱位来支撑高运价。第三季度三大海运联盟持续减班,往年第四季度单季通常会减班15%左右,但参考2020年一季度疫情期间缺乏货源,减班幅度甚至高达30%-40%。

有专家表示,虽然目前运价下跌,但与过去10年的超低价相比,船公司仍有足够的获利空间。而且运价走跌也有助于拉升部分货主的载货意愿,尤其木材、钢材等货源,有望从散货船运输重新改以集装箱船运送。

来源:国际船舶网