Is the container shipping market over?

With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the volume of Asian exports decreased, and the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) fell for two consecutive weeks.

According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on January 21, the SCFI index ended last week rising for nine consecutive weeks and set a new record for six consecutive weeks. For the first time, the freight rates of major routes such as the US-West Route, the European Route, and the Southeast Asia Route have been jointly revised down for the first time.

Among them, the Far East to the eastern line of the United States has the largest decline, with the freight rate falling 3.34% to $11,337/FEU for the week; the western line of the United States dropped slightly 0.23% to $7,976/FEU. In contrast, the performance of the European route was relatively stable. The freight rate of the Far East to Mediterranean route increased by 0.03% to US$7,522/TEU, and the freight rate of the Far East to Europe route decreased by 0.18% to US$7,783/TEU.

The near-ocean line remained mixed. The freight rate of the Far East to Japan Kansai line increased by 23 US dollars compared with the previous week, the Far East to Japan Kanto line fell by 7 US dollars compared with the previous week, and the Far East to Southeast Asia route to Singapore fell by 13 US dollars compared with the previous week. The line to Korea was down $7 from the previous week.

Industry analysts said that it is impossible for the freight rate to remain high all the time. As the Chinese Spring Festival holiday approaches, the demand decreases and the freight rate falls to reflect the market demand. Such a pullback trend is normal. Whether the market reverses downward or not, the rate of decline in future freight rates is an important indicator to observe, as long as it is not a collapse trend, don’t worry too much.

According to a person in the freight forwarding industry, the transaction price of both the trans-Pacific route and the European route remains at a high level at present. China will start production in the next two weeks of the year, and it is expected that the freight rate will continue to adjust. However, in the next February and March, the US-West docker contract will start the negotiation. According to past practice, if the negotiation fails, it may lead to sabotage or even strike. The cargo owner pulls the goods in advance, which will push up the demand for transport capacity in the first quarter and support the high freight rate. High freight rates are expected to remain at least until the second or third quarter.

Source: eworldship

集运市场到头了？运价连跌两周美东线跌幅最大

随着春节假期来临，亚洲出口货量减少，上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）连续两周下跌。

根据上海航交所1月21日最新公布的数据，SCFI指数上周终结连续九周上涨、连续六周刷新高纪录，本周连续第二周走跌，指数下跌0.81%至5053.12点，美东线、美西线、欧洲线、东南亚线等主要航线运价首度联袂下修。

其中，远东到美东线跌幅最大，运价周跌3.34%至11337美元/FEU；美西线小幅下跌0.23%至7976美元/FEU。相比之下，欧洲线表现较为平稳，远东到地中海航线运价上涨0.03%至7522美元/TEU，远东到欧洲线运价下跌0.18%至7783美元/TEU。

近洋线维持涨跌互见，远东到日本关西线运价较前一周上涨23美元，远东到日本关东线较前一周下跌7美元，远东到东南亚线新加坡航点较前一周下跌13美元，远东到韩国线较前一周下跌7美元。

业界人士分析称，运价不可能一直居高不下，随着中国春节假期临近需求减少，运价走跌反应市场需求，这样的回档走势是正常情况。市场是否反转向下，未来运价下跌幅度是重要观察指标，只要不是崩跌走势都不用过于担心。

货代行业人士表示，目前不管是跨太平洋航线或是欧洲线市场成交价均维持在高位，年后两周中国陆续开工生产，预计运价将持续盘整。但接下来的2、3月，美西码头工人合约将开始谈判，按照以往惯例若谈判不顺可能引起怠工甚至罢工，货主提前拉货，将推升一季度运力需求，支撑高运价，因此预估高运价至少维持到第二季度或第三季度。